July 2017 Dairy Situation & Outlook

Professor Bob Cropp’s 2017 July Dairy Situation & Outlook  full report is now available for download at UW Understanding Dairy Markets.  An exert follows below:

 Increased milk production this past spring resulted in higher cheese production that lowered cheese prices. Compared to a year ago, the production of cheddar cheese in May was 6.9% higher and total cheese production 4.0% higher. Cheese sales have been running higher than a year ago, but the increase has been lower than a year ago. Cheese exports have increased with May exports 48% higher than a year ago and year-to-date exports 22% higher. But, stocks of cheese have grown with May 31st stocks of American cheese 11.8% higher than a year ago and total cheese stocks 7.3% higher…..

 Dry whey averaged $0.4488 per pound June and have weaken some to $0.43. Butter averaged $2.5688 per pound in June and has ranged from $2.585 to $2.645 during July with the current price of $2.61. Nonfat dry milk averaged $0.89 per pound in June, but was as low as $0.84 in July with the current price at $0.86. Both May 31st dry whey and butter stocks were lower than a year ago respectively by 1.4% and 3.5%. But nonfat dry milk stocks were 21.6% higher. May exports of all three products were higher than a year ago with dry whey exports up 7%, butter up 178% and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder up 31%…

 If milk continues to increase less than 2% and exports continue to improve, the Class III price could be back to near $16.50 by August and reaching the low $17’s for October and November with an average for the year $16.45 to $16.75 compared to $14.87 in 2016. The August Class IV price could be near $16.60 and in the $17’s September through November and averaging $15.90 to $16.10 for the year compared to $13.75 in 2016…

Also, for a video podcast including Dr. Bob Cropp and Dr. Mark Stephenson discussing the  Dairy Situation & Outlook, please visit Program on Dairy Markets & Policy.

For more information regarding dairy markets, please contact UW-Extension Dairy Markets Specialist Brian Gould or visit UW-Extension Understanding Dairy Markets.


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