Is it a coincidence?

The Coincident Index (CI) is a monthly composite economic indicator published by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

The CI provides a snapshot of economic conditions in each state. An increase in a state’s CI over time indicates an expansion in economic activity the state while a declining CI signals a contraction in the state’s economy.

The Coincident Index combines four state-level indicators into a single statistic:
– non-farm employment
– average hours worked in manufacturing
– the unemployment rate
– wage and salary disbursements

QUESTION: Between August 2011 and November 2011, the CI increased in forty five states. How does Wisconsin rank during this period?

A. Near the top
B. In the middle
C. Near the bottom


C. Near the bottom

Between August 2011 and November 2011, the Coincident Index (CI)¹ declined in only five states: Wisconsin, Alaska, Wyoming, Indiana, and Minnesota

Wisconsin and Alaska are the only two states to experience declining CIs in each of the four months in the period.

¹The CI is calculated using four variables: 1) nonfarm employment; 2) average hours worked in manufacturing; 3) the unemployment rate; and 4) wage and salary disbursements.

More information about the Coincident Index and historical data for each state here.